Posted by
Chris Travers on Thursday, January 04, 2007 10:33:08 PM
Occasionally I change my mind with regard to political ideas. This happened to me today when, out of boredom I was reading the reactions to the Saddam execution video. I now believe that we need to be getting out of Iraq as quickly as we can, ideally brining in EU and Arab League peacekeepers to stabilize the area.
Before the war, I was opposed to beginning it. I felt, like many (though not the majority) Americans that invading Iraq was going to do nothing except provide international terrorists a new training ground now that Afghanistan had been largely taken from them. I also felt that the real goal needed to be success in Afghanistan (which is now dangerously sliding backwards). However, after Saddam fell, I also felt it was our responsibility to try to help stabilize the Iraqi state so that those Iraqis who have suffered both under Saddam and during the war would have a chance at a better life. I also thought and continue to believe that it is important to stop the use of Iraqi soil for terrorist training excersizes.
However a number of things have happened to change my mind. The first was the unauthorized Saddam execution video which shows the former tyrant appearing to bravely face a group of Iraqi civilians and officials who resemble more a lynch mob than an execution squad. There is no doubt in my mind that many Sunnis in Iraq and elsewhere will now regard Saddam as a hero. It is worth noting that only 3 countries have welcomed the announcement of the execution: The US, Israel, and Iran.
The Pope has condemned the recording specifically, and the Iraqi government has also focused their investigation on the recording rather than the mistreatment. But I think that focusing on the recording is missing the point. Saddam was, for all intents and purposes, lynched rather than executed in a professional manner. Furthermore, the timing of the event is largely regarded to contravene existing Iraqi law because it was done on the first day of the most important feast for Sunni muslims (the Shiites begin their celebration a day later). In this regard, it might even contravene the Constitution of Iraq. THe hanging was thus done in a way to maximize the message that Sunnis are not welcome in the State and is a very dangerous precident. The Iraqi government has shown that they are not interested in reconcilliation between the ethnic groups, and that they are indeed not our partners in building a stable Iraq.
The second issue (completely independant of the last) is that a recent poll showed that most Iraqis now prefer that the US leaves and that the vast majority now say that Iraqis are worse off today than under Saddam. If we are that unwelcome, our presence is going to do nothing but bolster the insurgency.
This being said, I do not approve of a simple unconditional withdrawal. Simply retreating from Iraq will provide a number of dynamics which will make Americans less safe and fuel the movement of the militant Salafi muslims who count bin Ladin among their number. We ought to bring the troops home not out of defeat but out of respect for the wishes of the Iraqi people.
Neither ought we to abandon the Iraqis to the inevitable civil war which will serve only to provide save harbor and training opportunities to terrorists. Instead, we should phase out US involvement and hand it over to peacekeepers operating ideally under EU and Arab League flags, though the UN is another option (the UN is politically at a disadvantage, however in dealing with incidents). The EU has shown that they are capable of delivering peacekeeping forces capable of helping to end the civil war in the Congo.
But in the end, I do not believe that our leaders will do the right thing. We will see more bloodshed, and eventually will cut and run maybe around 2009 or so, abandoning Iraq to the sort of chaos that only benefits terrorists. I hope I am wrong.